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A regular Commodities spread trading update by Simon Denham of Capital Spreads. For the latest Commodities spread trading update, click here.
Commodities Spread Betting, 12 Mar 08
On the commodity front Gold, yet again...did nothing. An early attempt to break higher had as much luck as the previous day’s attempts to break to the down side. We seem to be magnetically attracted to the $970 level where we open this morning.
On the other hand, the problems with consumerable commodities continue with rallies across the board led by Crude Oil (up for the fifth day in a row).
Softs also put in a good performance so we can expect the cost of everything from Sugar to Coffee to start impacting out supermarket baskets quite soon.
The Brent Crude Oil spread is now at $104.96 - $105.01 down a bit from last nights close but not particularly violent in early action. Yesterday 50 cent ranges came and went on a moment by moment basis and it was an almost impossible market to trade sensibly. Hopefully today will see a little stability return but I am not holding my breath.
Commodities Spread Betting, 11 Mar 08
Crude Oil went walkabout on the announcement that there was no help to be found from OPEC and just for once you can see their point. They have a finite amount of the black stuff (albeit enough at current extraction rates to last another century) but they probably see no reason to perpetually increase supply merely to reduce the price of virtually their only export and at the same time reduce the longevity of the product itself.
As oil reaches higher levels the price hike should create its own brake on increased use. In the UK a Litre is now around 105 - 110p, much more would almost certainly have those with alternative transport choices think in terms of a change. In the States where (perversely) the lack of high taxation means that petrol prices are much more directly influenced (on a percentage basis) by the cost of Oil the impact may be even greater.
Oddly enough in all the fun over the past few days Gold has actually done very little indeed. In the past few years any price consolidation has generally been a precursor to yet another sharp move higher so bears will be watching the boards very closely. The current gold spread is $973.0 - $973.5 is up about a dollar but is well within recent days trading ranges.
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Commodities Spread Betting, 10 Mar 08
Crude Oil is also just shy of another record high and clients seem to be increasingly trying to pick the top. Inventories have been propping up the market and for all money that clients are giving up on oil, they are making back on gold.
Some profit taking on Friday saw a bit of a gold retracement back to the $970 level, but with almost every pull back it seems at the moment that it just presents another buying opportunity for the bulls. Spot gold is at $977.8 as I write.
Commodities Spread Betting, 5 Mar 08
Commodities have had a bit of a fall out but in reality are just back to where they were a week or so ago. The Capital Spreads Accounts are now very long indeed of virtually every product (even things like Lean Hogs and Soybeans). This may be a worrying position as, if our clients are this way round, then (probably) most retail spread betting company’s clients are also very long. It would not take much to turn yesterdays little fall into a full blown pull back.
Commodities Spread Betting, 4 Mar 08
Crude Oil went walkabout yesterday with the price for Brent shooting up to $102.30 before slumping back to under $100. The Crude Oil spread and is currently at $100.40 -$100.45. The price action looked very much like a bear squeeze taking out weak sellers and may be the signal for a bit of a sell off. Having filled up my gas-guzzler at the weekend, and being stung for over £100 for the privilege, one can but hope!
Commodities Spread Betting, 3 Mar 08
The one bright bullish area is the one that we would all wish to be bearish. Gold is trading another $7 higher at another record level, $984. Silver is trading above $20 which means it has moved over 15% in the last two weeks. The Platinum market seems to be pausing for breath having run out of steam with current prices around the $2150 level. The recent moves may be more a bear squeeze as there were (apparently) some heavy shorts built up in Gold and Silver in the low $900’s and mid $17’s respectively. If we can maintain these prices for a bit then the next push higher cannot be long coming. However the probability of a major reversal are also increasing with every dollar we move.
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